Doji
A candle whose open and close are almost the same price, leaving a very small body and, usually, wicks on both sides. It is read as indecision — buyers and sellers finishing where they started.
The textbook reading is that a doji marks a pause, and on that reading its success test is whether price then stayed put. Our own record says something more interesting and in the opposite direction: on hourly candles a doji is followed by a move of more than half a percent far more often than an ordinary candle is. A doji does carry information, but what it appears to signal is movement rather than stillness, which is close to the reverse of what the name implies. That is why the card states the figure both ways round.
What a doji has actually done
Every occurrence we hold, scored on whether price moved more than 0.5% in the pattern’s own direction within three candles.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1H · crypto | 46,109 | 41.0% | 53.8% | -12.8pp |
| 4H · crypto | 10,824 | 40.0% | 29.1% | +10.9pp |
| 1D · crypto | 6,297 | 14.1% | 10.7% | +3.4pp |
| 1D · metal | 41 | 19.5% | 10.7% | +8.8pp |
Baseline is the share of ordinary candles that passed the same test over the same period, same timeframe and same direction. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.