Falling Channel
Price declining between two roughly parallel downward-sloping lines, each touched more than once.
The mirror of the rising channel and, on this site's data, the better-behaved of the two. As with any channel, the target is derived from the channel's own width, so the reward-to-risk ratio it implies is a property of the shape rather than of the market's intentions.
What a falling channel has actually done
Every completed occurrence we hold, replayed forward one trade at a time until it reached its target, its stop, or its deadline — after a 0.20% round-trip trading cost.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge | Median R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1H · crypto | 177 | 31.6% | 36.6% | -5.0pp | -1.03 |
| 4H · crypto | 131 | 8.4% | 33.0% | -24.6pp | -1.02 |
| 1D · crypto | 86 | 53.5% | 35.0% | +18.4pp | 1.21 |
Baseline is the chance of touching this pattern’s target before its stop with no drift at all — the odds the geometry alone implies. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. Median R is what the trades returned per unit of risk, across every occurrence including losses, after costs — it can be negative for a pattern that reaches its target more often than chance. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.