Falling Channel
Price declining between two roughly parallel downward-sloping lines, each touched more than once.
The mirror of the rising channel and, on this site's data, the better-behaved of the two. As with any channel, the target is derived from the channel's own width, so the reward-to-risk ratio it implies is a property of the shape rather than of the market's intentions.
What a falling channel has actually done
Every completed occurrence we hold, replayed forward one trade at a time until it reached its target, its stop, or its deadline — after a 0.20% round-trip trading cost.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge | Median R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D · crypto | 110 | 36.4% | 33.6% | +2.8pp | -1.00 |
| 4H · crypto | 85 | 68.2% | 33.4% | +34.8pp | 1.40 |
| 1H · crypto | 42 | 47.6% | 34.7% | +12.9pp | 0.56 |
Baseline is the chance of touching this pattern’s target before its stop with no drift at all — the odds the geometry alone implies. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. Median R is what the trades returned per unit of risk, across every occurrence including losses, after costs — it can be negative for a pattern that reaches its target more often than chance. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.