Rising Channel
Price advancing between two roughly parallel upward-sloping lines, each touched more than once.
A trend with a measurable width. The usual reading is to treat the lower line as support while it holds, which means the pattern has no completion event of its own in the way a triangle does — it is a description of a state rather than a prediction of a break. That difference shows up in the measured record, and not flatteringly: read the success rate here against its baseline rather than on its own, because a channel's target sits close to price by construction.
What a rising channel has actually done
Every completed occurrence we hold, replayed forward one trade at a time until it reached its target, its stop, or its deadline — after a 0.20% round-trip trading cost.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge | Median R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4H · crypto | 108 | 23.2% | 28.2% | -5.0pp | -1.01 |
| 1H · crypto | 85 | 10.6% | 28.4% | -17.8pp | -1.06 |
| 1D · crypto | 62 | 25.8% | 26.0% | -0.2pp | -1.01 |
Baseline is the chance of touching this pattern’s target before its stop with no drift at all — the odds the geometry alone implies. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. Median R is what the trades returned per unit of risk, across every occurrence including losses, after costs — it can be negative for a pattern that reaches its target more often than chance. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.