Rounding Bottom

A gradual, curved transition from falling to rising, with no single sharp low. It completes when price closes above the level where the curve began.

Also called a saucer. Selling that fades rather than capitulates produces this shape, and the absence of a sharp low is the point — a V-shaped reversal is a different thing with different behaviour afterwards. Because the curve is fitted rather than drawn between two points, the shape-fit figure on the card matters more here than on most patterns: a poorly fitted curve is simply a line with some noise around it.

What a rounding bottom has actually done

Every completed occurrence we hold, replayed forward one trade at a time until it reached its target, its stop, or its deadline — after a 0.20% round-trip trading cost.

Timeframe	Occurrences	Reached target	Baseline	Edge	Median R
4H · crypto	229	78.6%	69.9%	+8.7pp	0.32
1H · crypto	170	89.4%	71.4%	+18.0pp	0.33
1D · crypto	118	38.1%	38.0%	+0.1pp	-1.00

Baseline is the chance of touching this pattern’s target before its stop with no drift at all — the odds the geometry alone implies. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. Median R is what the trades returned per unit of risk, across every occurrence including losses, after costs — it can be negative for a pattern that reaches its target more often than chance. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.

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