Symmetrical Triangle

Two converging boundaries, one falling and one rising, with neither dominant. It completes on a close beyond either line.

A range that is narrowing without a direction — which is why it is called a continuation pattern rather than a reversal one: the breakout direction is not predicted by the shape, only the fact that a breakout is coming. That makes its published success rate harder to read than most, because the measured record tracks whether the target was reached after the break rather than whether the break went the way anyone expected. A very high reward-to-risk ratio in the geometry and a low hit rate are the normal combination here, and neither number means much without the other.

What a symmetrical triangle has actually done

Every completed occurrence we hold, replayed forward one trade at a time until it reached its target, its stop, or its deadline — after a 0.20% round-trip trading cost.

Timeframe	Occurrences	Reached target	Baseline	Edge	Median R
4H · crypto	45	20.0%	19.9%	+0.1pp	-1.02
1D · crypto	40	30.0%	31.7%	-1.7pp	-1.01
1H · crypto	37	32.4%	23.1%	+9.3pp	-1.03

Baseline is the chance of touching this pattern’s target before its stop with no drift at all — the odds the geometry alone implies. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. Median R is what the trades returned per unit of risk, across every occurrence including losses, after costs — it can be negative for a pattern that reaches its target more often than chance. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.

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