Official Trump (TRUMP) is 126099.3× the size of Arbitrage Loop (ARB) by market capitalisation. Their daily returns move barely together (correlation 0.29 across 33 shared trading days). ARB has been the more volatile of the two, at 244% annualised against TRUMP's 97%.
ARBTRUMP
0.29over 33 shared trading days
Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.
| Metric | ARB | TRUMP |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown (400d) | -33.6% | -85.7% |
| Risk-adjusted return (90d) | -0.12 | -0.11 |
| Best 30 days (past year) | — | +87.1% |
| Worst 30 days (past year) | — | -42.0% |
Relative strength over 90 days: ARB outperformed TRUMP by 12.8% — measured on the ARB/TRUMP ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.