Filecoin (FIL) is 3.4× the size of Arweave (AR) by market capitalisation. Over the past 1 year, AR is ahead by 15.6 percentage points (AR -20.7% against FIL -36.3%). Their daily returns move closely together (correlation 0.76 across 399 shared trading days). Both have run at a similar volatility, around 122% annualised.
ARFIL
0.76over 399 shared trading days
Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.
| Metric | AR | FIL |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown (400d) | -80.7% | -81.4% |
| Risk-adjusted return (90d) | 0.67 | 0.23 |
| Best 30 days (past year) | +124.8% | +66.2% |
| Worst 30 days (past year) | -53.3% | -57.1% |
Relative strength over 90 days: AR outperformed FIL by 49.2% — measured on the AR/FIL ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.