Cipher vs PolySwarm

PolySwarm (NCT) is 25.6× the size of Cipher (CIPHER) by market capitalisation. Over the past 30 days, CIPHER is ahead by 17.7 percentage points (CIPHER -14.3% against NCT -32.1%). Their daily returns move barely in opposite directions (correlation -0.20 across 37 shared trading days). CIPHER has been the more volatile of the two, at 133% annualised against NCT's 75%.

Correlation: -0.20
Size ratio: 1 : 25.6
Ahead over 30 days: CIPHER

CipherCIPHER

$0.001431

24h: -0.18%
Market cap: $572,388
Volume 24h: $29
Volatility (ann.): 133%

PolySwarmNCT

$0.007760

24h: -1.62%
Market cap: $14.63M
Volume 24h: $234,899
Volatility (ann.): 75%

CIPHER 3.8%Share of the two combined market caps96.2% NCT

Performance

CIPHERNCT

7 days-5.55%-13.81%CIPHER
30 days-14.34%-32.08%CIPHER

Correlation

-0.20over 37 shared trading days

−1 opposite0 unrelated+1 in step

7d: insufficient data30d: -0.1290d: insufficient data1y: insufficient data

Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.

Risk & extremes

Metric	CIPHER	NCT
Max drawdown (400d)	-27.7%	-45.0%
Risk-adjusted return (90d)	0.15	-0.51

Relative strength over 90 days: CIPHER outperformed NCT by 99.0% — measured on the CIPHER/NCT ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.

Cipher →PolySwarm →