Official Trump (TRUMP) is 15172.7× the size of Federal Oil Fund (FOF) by market capitalisation. Their daily returns move barely in opposite directions (correlation -0.29 across 31 shared trading days). FOF has been the more volatile of the two, at 341% annualised against TRUMP's 97%.
FOFTRUMP
-0.29over 31 shared trading days
Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.
| Metric | FOF | TRUMP |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown (400d) | -21.1% | -85.7% |
| Risk-adjusted return (90d) | 0.49 | -0.11 |
| Best 30 days (past year) | — | +87.1% |
| Worst 30 days (past year) | — | -42.0% |
Relative strength over 90 days: FOF outperformed TRUMP by 335.2% — measured on the FOF/TRUMP ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.