Arweave (AR) is 53.4× the size of Shadow Token (SHDW) by market capitalisation. Their daily returns move barely together (correlation 0.08 across 40 shared trading days). SHDW has been the more volatile of the two, at 244% annualised against AR's 119%.
SHDWAR
0.08over 40 shared trading days
Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.
| Metric | SHDW | AR |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown (400d) | -36.7% | -80.7% |
| Risk-adjusted return (90d) | 0.04 | 0.58 |
| Best 30 days (past year) | — | +124.8% |
| Worst 30 days (past year) | — | -53.3% |
Relative strength over 90 days: AR outperformed SHDW by 28.8% — measured on the SHDW/AR ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.