Bitcoin (BTC) is 159734512.9× the size of GLOBAL MONEY SUPPLY (M2) by market capitalisation. Their daily returns move barely together (correlation 0.06 across 21 shared trading days). M2 has been the more volatile of the two, at 66% annualised against BTC's 44%.
M2BTC
0.06over 21 shared trading days
Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.
| Metric | M2 | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown (400d) | -33.1% | -53.0% |
| Risk-adjusted return (90d) | -0.48 | 0.63 |
| Best 30 days (past year) | — | +26.8% |
| Worst 30 days (past year) | — | -32.9% |
Relative strength over 90 days: BTC outperformed M2 by 24.9% — measured on the M2/BTC ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.