Kalshi PreStocks vs Figure Heloc

Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC) is 33011.1× the size of Kalshi PreStocks (KALSHI) by market capitalisation. Over the past 30 days, KALSHI is ahead by 0.4 percentage points (KALSHI +3.0% against FIGR_HELOC +2.7%). Their daily returns move barely together (correlation 0.30 across 27 shared trading days). KALSHI has been the more volatile of the two, at 65% annualised against FIGR_HELOC's 52%.

Correlation: 0.30
Size ratio: 1 : 33011.1
Ahead over 30 days: KALSHI

Kalshi PreStocksKALSHI

$898.7300

24h: +0.65%
Market cap: $813,195
Volume 24h: $137,798
Volatility (ann.): 65%

Figure HelocFIGR_HELOC

$1.0300

24h: -0.29%
Market cap: $26.84B
Volume 24h: $481.12M
Volatility (ann.): 52%

KALSHI 0.0%Share of the two combined market caps100.0% FIGR_HELOC

Performance

KALSHIFIGR_HELOC

7 days-2.56%+0.19%FIGR_HELOC
30 days+3.05%+2.69%KALSHI

Correlation

0.30over 27 shared trading days

−1 opposite0 unrelated+1 in step

7d: insufficient data30d: 0.3090d: insufficient data1y: insufficient data

Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.

Risk & extremes

Metric	KALSHI	FIGR_HELOC
Max drawdown (400d)	-9.8%	-5.5%
Risk-adjusted return (90d)	0.14	0.05

Relative strength over 90 days: KALSHI outperformed FIGR_HELOC by 11.6% — measured on the KALSHI/FIGR_HELOC ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.

Kalshi PreStocks →Figure Heloc →