Tether Gold (XAUT) is 4005.9× the size of Kalshi PreStocks (KALSHI) by market capitalisation. Their daily returns move barely in opposite directions (correlation -0.11 across 39 shared trading days). KALSHI has been the more volatile of the two, at 65% annualised against XAUT's 24%.
KALSHIXAUT
-0.11over 39 shared trading days
Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.
| Metric | KALSHI | XAUT |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown (400d) | -9.8% | -19.4% |
| Risk-adjusted return (90d) | 0.14 | -0.36 |
Relative strength over 90 days: KALSHI outperformed XAUT by 23.2% — measured on the KALSHI/XAUT ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.