Official Trump (TRUMP) is 146058.1× the size of Midterm Elections (MIDTERMS) by market capitalisation. Their daily returns move loosely together (correlation 0.37 across 32 shared trading days). MIDTERMS has been the more volatile of the two, at 162% annualised against TRUMP's 97%.
MIDTERMSTRUMP
0.37over 32 shared trading days
Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.
| Metric | MIDTERMS | TRUMP |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown (400d) | -58.5% | -85.7% |
| Risk-adjusted return (90d) | -0.33 | -0.11 |
| Best 30 days (past year) | — | +87.1% |
| Worst 30 days (past year) | — | -42.0% |
Relative strength over 90 days: TRUMP outperformed MIDTERMS by 24.6% — measured on the MIDTERMS/TRUMP ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.