Tether Gold (XAUT) is 4083.1× the size of Polymarket PreStocks (POLYMARKET) by market capitalisation. Their daily returns move loosely together (correlation 0.57 across 39 shared trading days). POLYMARKET has been the more volatile of the two, at 44% annualised against XAUT's 24%.
$165.7800
POLYMARKETXAUT
0.57over 39 shared trading days
Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.
| Metric | POLYMARKET | XAUT |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown (400d) | -12.7% | -19.4% |
| Risk-adjusted return (90d) | -0.17 | -0.36 |
Relative strength over 90 days: POLYMARKET outperformed XAUT by 4.6% — measured on the POLYMARKET/XAUT ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.