Bitcoin (BTC) is 15270225.8× the size of predict FWA (PFWA) by market capitalisation. Their daily returns move barely together (correlation 0.22 across 36 shared trading days). PFWA has been the more volatile of the two, at 315% annualised against BTC's 44%.
PFWABTC
0.22over 36 shared trading days
Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.
| Metric | PFWA | BTC |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown (400d) | -72.6% | -53.0% |
| Risk-adjusted return (90d) | -0.18 | 0.63 |
| Best 30 days (past year) | — | +26.8% |
| Worst 30 days (past year) | — | -32.9% |
Relative strength over 90 days: BTC outperformed PFWA by 55.7% — measured on the PFWA/BTC ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.