Tether Gold (XAUT) is 4639.0× the size of Kalshi (Tessera Pre-IPO) (TKALSHI) by market capitalisation. Their daily returns move barely together (correlation 0.05 across 39 shared trading days). Both have run at a similar volatility, around 24% annualised.
$450.3000
TKALSHIXAUT
0.05over 39 shared trading days
Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.
| Metric | TKALSHI | XAUT |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown (400d) | -2.5% | -19.4% |
| Risk-adjusted return (90d) | 0.27 | -0.36 |
Relative strength over 90 days: TKALSHI outperformed XAUT by 20.4% — measured on the TKALSHI/XAUT ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.