Arweave (AR) is 3.4× the size of Theta Fuel (TFUEL) by market capitalisation. Over the past 1 year, AR is ahead by 46.2 percentage points (TFUEL -63.0% against AR -16.8%). Their daily returns move loosely together (correlation 0.55 across 399 shared trading days). AR has been the more volatile of the two, at 119% annualised against TFUEL's 64%.
TFUELAR
0.55over 399 shared trading days
Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.
| Metric | TFUEL | AR |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown (400d) | -78.0% | -80.7% |
| Risk-adjusted return (90d) | 0.13 | 0.58 |
| Best 30 days (past year) | +50.7% | +124.8% |
| Worst 30 days (past year) | -34.7% | -53.3% |
Relative strength over 90 days: AR outperformed TFUEL by 36.8% — measured on the TFUEL/AR ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.