Belt Hold
A long candle that opens at one extreme of its range and closes near the other, with almost no wick on the opening side. A bullish belt hold opens at its low; a bearish one opens at its high.
One-sided from the first tick to the last. The absence of a wick on the opening side is the whole of the pattern: it says nobody managed to push price back through the open at any point in the period, which is a stronger statement than a large body alone.
What a belt hold has actually done
Every occurrence we hold, scored on whether price moved more than 0.5% in the pattern’s own direction within three candles.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1H · crypto | 115,686 | 23.9% | 22.1% | +1.8pp |
| 1D · crypto | 25,030 | 21.0% | 35.6% | -14.6pp |
| 4H · crypto | 9,714 | 30.7% | 33.4% | -2.7pp |
Baseline is the share of ordinary candles that passed the same test over the same period, same timeframe and same direction. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.