Cup and Handle
A rounded bottom followed by a smaller, shallower pullback near the level where the cup began. It completes on a close above the rim.
A long base and then a short hesitation before the attempt. The handle is the part that distinguishes it from an ordinary rounded bottom, and the part most often drawn where it is not — a handle deeper than about a third of the cup is usually the start of a second decline rather than a pause before a breakout.
What a cup and handle has actually done
Every completed occurrence we hold, replayed forward one trade at a time until it reached its target, its stop, or its deadline — after a 0.20% round-trip trading cost.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge | Median R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D · crypto | 305 | 22.3% | 38.3% | -16.0pp | -1.01 |
| 4H · crypto | 122 | 20.5% | 35.4% | -14.9pp | -1.01 |
Baseline is the chance of touching this pattern’s target before its stop with no drift at all — the odds the geometry alone implies. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. Median R is what the trades returned per unit of risk, across every occurrence including losses, after costs — it can be negative for a pattern that reaches its target more often than chance. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.