Cup and Handle

A rounded bottom followed by a smaller, shallower pullback near the level where the cup began. It completes on a close above the rim.

A long base and then a short hesitation before the attempt. The handle is the part that distinguishes it from an ordinary rounded bottom, and the part most often drawn where it is not — a handle deeper than about a third of the cup is usually the start of a second decline rather than a pause before a breakout.

What a cup and handle has actually done

Every completed occurrence we hold, replayed forward one trade at a time until it reached its target, its stop, or its deadline — after a 0.20% round-trip trading cost.

Timeframe	Occurrences	Reached target	Baseline	Edge	Median R
1D · crypto	124	57.3%	42.0%	+15.2pp	0.07
4H · crypto	121	48.8%	33.3%	+15.4pp	-1.01

Baseline is the chance of touching this pattern’s target before its stop with no drift at all — the odds the geometry alone implies. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. Median R is what the trades returned per unit of risk, across every occurrence including losses, after costs — it can be negative for a pattern that reaches its target more often than chance. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.

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