Dark Cloud Cover
A falling candle that opens above the previous rising candle's high and closes below the midpoint of its body.
A gap up that was sold into hard enough to give back more than half of the prior period's gain. The midpoint requirement is what separates it from an ordinary down period — without it, any red candle after a green one would qualify.
What a dark cloud cover has actually done
Every occurrence we hold, scored on whether price moved more than 0.5% in the pattern’s own direction within three candles.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1H · crypto | 541 | 38.1% | 24.0% | +14.1pp |
| 1D · crypto | 119 | 63.9% | 53.6% | +10.2pp |
| 4H · crypto | 114 | 36.0% | 37.5% | -1.6pp |
Baseline is the share of ordinary candles that passed the same test over the same period, same timeframe and same direction. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.