Diamond Top
A broadening phase followed immediately by a narrowing one, so the outline widens and then converges. It completes on a close below the lower boundary of the narrowing half.
Rare, and rare for a reason: it requires two opposite behaviours in sequence, which is a demanding thing to ask of a price series and an easy thing to imagine in hindsight. Treat a small occurrence count here as the main fact about it.
What a diamond top has actually done
Every completed occurrence we hold, replayed forward one trade at a time until it reached its target, its stop, or its deadline — after a 0.20% round-trip trading cost.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge | Median R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1H · crypto | 41 | 90.2% | 66.2% | +24.0pp | -0.31 |
Baseline is the chance of touching this pattern’s target before its stop with no drift at all — the odds the geometry alone implies. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. Median R is what the trades returned per unit of risk, across every occurrence including losses, after costs — it can be negative for a pattern that reaches its target more often than chance. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.