Evening Star
Three candles after an advance: a long rising one, a small-bodied one, then a long falling one closing well into the first candle's body.
The mirror of the morning star, and read as a top forming across three periods.
What a evening star has actually done
Every occurrence we hold, scored on whether price moved more than 0.5% in the pattern’s own direction within three candles.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4H · crypto | 127 | 47.2% | 37.4% | +9.8pp |
| 1H · crypto | 90 | 28.9% | 22.7% | +6.2pp |
| 1D · crypto | 39 | 41.0% | 48.6% | -7.6pp |
Baseline is the share of ordinary candles that passed the same test over the same period, same timeframe and same direction. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.