Hammer
A candle with a small body near the top and a lower wick at least twice the body's length, appearing after a decline.
Price was pushed well below the close and recovered before the period ended. The prior decline is part of the definition, not an optional context: the identical shape after an advance is a hanging man and is read the opposite way, which is a good illustration of how much of candlestick analysis depends on what came before rather than on the candle itself.
What a hammer has actually done
Every occurrence we hold, scored on whether price moved more than 0.5% in the pattern’s own direction within three candles.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D · crypto | 5,014 | 27.7% | 34.9% | -7.2pp |
| 1H · crypto | 3,887 | 34.2% | 22.1% | +12.1pp |
| 4H · crypto | 2,870 | 37.5% | 33.3% | +4.3pp |
Baseline is the share of ordinary candles that passed the same test over the same period, same timeframe and same direction. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.