Hammer
A candle with a small body near the top and a lower wick at least twice the body's length, appearing after a decline.
Price was pushed well below the close and recovered before the period ended. The prior decline is part of the definition, not an optional context: the identical shape after an advance is a hanging man and is read the opposite way, which is a good illustration of how much of candlestick analysis depends on what came before rather than on the candle itself.
What a hammer has actually done
Every occurrence we hold, scored on whether price moved more than 0.5% in the pattern’s own direction within three candles.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4H · crypto | 1,725 | 39.8% | 33.6% | +6.2pp |
| 1H · crypto | 1,514 | 35.7% | 22.3% | +13.4pp |
| 1D · crypto | 873 | 43.5% | 39.4% | +4.2pp |
Baseline is the share of ordinary candles that passed the same test over the same period, same timeframe and same direction. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.