Morning Star
Three candles after a decline: a long falling one, a small-bodied one that gaps or drifts lower, then a long rising one closing well into the first candle's body.
A decline, a pause, and a recovery, read as a bottom forming over three periods rather than one. Three-candle patterns are less common than one- and two-candle ones, so their published samples are smaller and their rates noisier; the occurrence count beside the figure is the first thing to look at.
What a morning star has actually done
Every occurrence we hold, scored on whether price moved more than 0.5% in the pattern’s own direction within three candles.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4H · crypto | 127 | 44.9% | 33.6% | +11.3pp |
| 1H · crypto | 65 | 29.2% | 22.3% | +7.0pp |
| 1D · crypto | 47 | 29.8% | 39.4% | -9.6pp |
Baseline is the share of ordinary candles that passed the same test over the same period, same timeframe and same direction. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.