Rectangle

Price oscillating between two roughly horizontal boundaries for long enough that both have been tested more than once. It completes on a close beyond either.

The plainest shape on the list and the one most likely to be nothing at all: every series spends much of its life in a range, and calling each range a pattern would fill the site with signals that mean nothing. The requirement is that both boundaries have held repeatedly and that the range is wide relative to the recent average bar, so that the boundaries are levels rather than noise.

What a rectangle has actually done

Every completed occurrence we hold, replayed forward one trade at a time until it reached its target, its stop, or its deadline — after a 0.20% round-trip trading cost.

Timeframe	Occurrences	Reached target	Baseline	Edge	Median R
4H · crypto	65	29.2%	29.7%	-0.5pp	-1.11
1H · crypto	38	15.8%	27.6%	-11.8pp	-1.07

Baseline is the chance of touching this pattern’s target before its stop with no drift at all — the odds the geometry alone implies. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. Median R is what the trades returned per unit of risk, across every occurrence including losses, after costs — it can be negative for a pattern that reaches its target more often than chance. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.

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