Rounding Top
A gradual, curved transition from rising to falling, with no single sharp high. It completes when price closes below the level where the curve began.
The mirror of the rounding bottom, and rarer, because tops are more often made by a sudden reversal than by a slow one. The same caution about curve fitting applies.
What a rounding top has actually done
Every completed occurrence we hold, replayed forward one trade at a time until it reached its target, its stop, or its deadline — after a 0.20% round-trip trading cost.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge | Median R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1H · crypto | 124 | 67.7% | 69.8% | -2.1pp | 0.22 |
| 1D · crypto | 97 | 29.9% | 66.8% | -36.9pp | 0.06 |
| 4H · crypto | 63 | 61.9% | 65.4% | -3.5pp | 0.38 |
Baseline is the chance of touching this pattern’s target before its stop with no drift at all — the odds the geometry alone implies. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. Median R is what the trades returned per unit of risk, across every occurrence including losses, after costs — it can be negative for a pattern that reaches its target more often than chance. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.