Rounding Top
A gradual, curved transition from rising to falling, with no single sharp high. It completes when price closes below the level where the curve began.
What a rounding top has actually done
Every completed occurrence we hold, replayed forward one trade at a time until it reached its target, its stop, or its deadline — after a 0.20% round-trip trading cost.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge | Median R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D · crypto | 107 | 43.0% | 67.3% | -24.4pp | 0.23 |
| 4H · crypto | 85 | 34.1% | 64.4% | -30.3pp | -1.01 |
| 1H · crypto | 72 | 22.2% | 47.4% | -25.1pp | -1.03 |
Baseline is the chance of touching this pattern’s target before its stop with no drift at all — the odds the geometry alone implies. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. Median R is what the trades returned per unit of risk, across every occurrence including losses, after costs — it can be negative for a pattern that reaches its target more often than chance. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.