Triple Bottom
Three troughs at approximately the same level, completing when price closes above the highest of the intervening peaks.
Three failed attempts to break a floor. Like the triple top it is uncommon, and like every pattern with an uncommon shape it is where a small sample most easily produces an impressive-looking rate. The measured record here is published with its occurrence count for that reason.
What a triple bottom has actually done
Every completed occurrence we hold, replayed forward one trade at a time until it reached its target, its stop, or its deadline — after a 0.20% round-trip trading cost.
| Timeframe | Occurrences | Reached target | Baseline | Edge | Median R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1H · crypto | 33 | 39.4% | 62.8% | -23.4pp | -1.03 |
Baseline is the chance of touching this pattern’s target before its stop with no drift at all — the odds the geometry alone implies. A rate at or below it means the shape added nothing. Edge is the difference between the two. Median R is what the trades returned per unit of risk, across every occurrence including losses, after costs — it can be negative for a pattern that reaches its target more often than chance. This is a record of what followed, not a forecast.