CoW Protocol (COW) is 1177.6× the size of Manifold Finance (FOLD) by market capitalisation. Their daily returns move barely together (correlation 0.31 across 23 shared trading days). COW has been the more volatile of the two, at 87% annualised against FOLD's 57%.
FOLDCOW
0.31over 23 shared trading days
Measured on daily returns rather than on prices. Two assets that both simply trend upward score near 1.0 on raw prices whether or not they move together, so returns are what answer the question people mean by correlation.
| Metric | FOLD | COW |
|---|---|---|
| Max drawdown (400d) | -16.4% | -66.0% |
| Risk-adjusted return (90d) | -0.25 | 0.14 |
| Best 30 days (past year) | — | +64.8% |
| Worst 30 days (past year) | — | -41.9% |
Relative strength over 90 days: FOLD outperformed COW by 17.6% — measured on the FOLD/COW ratio, so it holds regardless of market direction.